A Turbulent Economy Meets a Wave of Mortgage Renewals

Right now, millions of Canadians are bracing for mortgage renewals—and many are facing rates two to three times higher than what they locked in during the pandemic. If that sounds like you, you’re not alone. It’s one of the biggest shifts we’ve seen in years, and it’s colliding with broader economic uncertainty that’s got many people asking: Is now a good time to buy, sell, or refinance?

The short answer? It depends on your goals—but there are opportunities if you know where to look. And as a mortgage broker, I'm here to help you navigate those options, not just ride out the storm.

Where Things Stand in 2025

Canada’s economy is feeling the pressure from several directions—global trade tensions, shaky consumer confidence, and cautious monetary policy.

According to a recent CBC News report, “Global trade conflicts and higher tariffs are creating a perfect storm for economic stagnation” (CBC). And closer to home, Canadian economist David Rosenberg recently warned, “We’re looking at recessionary indicators across the board—from yield curves to declining consumer spending” (CTV).

That’s not exactly calming news when you’re already worried about rising mortgage payments. Confidence is low; according to Canadian Mortgage Trends, consumer sentiment has hit a multi-year low as fears of a recession mount.

But here’s the thing: this isn’t all bad news for buyers, sellers, or even current homeowners. With the right strategy, this moment in time could be an opportunity in disguise.

Source: Canadianmortgagetrends.com

What This Means for You

Let’s break it down depending on where you’re at:

Renewing a Mortgage? Let’s Talk Strategy

If your mortgage is up for renewal this year, chances are your new rate could be 2–3x higher than what you’ve been paying. That can feel like a shock—but it also means it's more important than ever to work with someone who can shop your rate across multiple lenders.

Banks aren’t always offering the best deals right now. But I have access to dozens of lenders—some who are offering flexible terms or better rates to qualified clients looking to stay financially stable.

Tip: Renewing early, extending your amortization, or switching lenders could all be tools worth exploring. Let’s review your options before you accept your lender’s offer.

First-Time Buyer or Investor? The Market May Be Shifting

While interest rates are higher, housing inventory is starting to build. That’s giving buyers more leverage than they’ve had in years. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, 2025 might actually be your chance to negotiate better pricing or conditions on a purchase.

According to Mortgage News Daily, “Bond markets are pricing in rate cuts later this year, which could make mortgages more affordable in the second half of 2025”.

That means savvy buyers and investors who get into the market now—before prices start rising again—may benefit from refinancing later at lower rates.

Tip: Look at homes sitting on the market a little longer. Sellers may be more motivated than usual.

Realtors & Sellers: Change Creates Opportunity

More renewals + tighter budgets = potential listings. If you’re a real estate agent or homeowner considering selling, we may see an increase in motivated sellers, especially as people look to downsize or free up equity.

At the same time, some buyers are eager to get in before rates drop—and potentially push prices back up. It’s a unique moment where both supply and opportunity are increasing.

Let’s talk about how to align financing solutions with your listings or client needs. Creative solutions like porting mortgages, assuming existing loans, or using HELOCs can open doors in a tougher market.

What I’m Seeing on the Ground

I’m having more conversations right now about:

• Early renewals to lock in before potential further increases

• Variable-to-fixed transitions for peace of mind

• Refinancing to consolidate debt as inflation stretches budgets

• Pre-approvals for buyers waiting for the right opportunity

  
  

The truth is, even in uncertain times, there are ways to move forward. In fact, these moments often separate those who pause from those who plan.

Let’s Create a Plan That Works for You

Whether you’re facing renewal anxiety, thinking about buying, or just unsure what your next step should be, let’s talk. This market isn’t easy, but you don’t have to navigate it alone—and you definitely don’t have to settle for one-size-fits-all solutions.

Ready to talk strategy?

 Reach out any time at 604-344-0741 or cait@mortgagedesigners.ca. Let’s build a custom plan that helps you move forward—confidently.